Sunday, 3 February 2019

Jan 2019 look-back: Defensive stocks and short term trading strategies

  Posted at  February 03, 2019 2 comments
First of all, wishing everyone a Huat Huat Chinese New Year 2019!

Musings of a relatively new investor:
As a relatively new investor at about a year in the market, the purpose of my blog is to provide a feedback loop mechanism to my trail of thought. Hopefully, in future I can look back and laugh at my silly thoughts and also hopefully refine them as I go along. 

The Pig came in at the last of the 12 zodiac animals because it overslept... lol.
January 2019 had been a blast for many traders and investors. Many attribute it to the continuation of the Christmas rally, some said it was the January "bonus effect" where investors dumped their year end bonus into the market. There are quite a few investors from Investing Note whom I know made a killing because they bought into the market at a "low" where there was some panic if Mr Market was headed for a downturn. In fact, it was one of the worst Christmas Eve plunge in December as major indices dropped from an all-time high back in September. I wish I was as equally adept at trading.

Ugly December Christmas Eve 2018. Trump probably needs to shut up lol.

So, what did K.C. do in the first half of January? 🤦‍♂️

Nothing, except watch as the market rebound without adding any positions due to fear for a prolonged downturn. Of course, hindsight is always 20/20 but by mid January, it was obvious that the market wasn't going to crash (yet).

Relook - January Statistics:
According to Stocks Cafe
(Vested positions only, this does not include cash):

(December to Mid Jan)
Time-Weighted
=  -10.94% (All)  Xirr-17.98% (All)
(End Jan, 2nd Feb)
Time-Weighted
-7.94% (All) Xirr-9.47% (All)

According to my own portfolio tracker in absolute numbers:
(December to Mid Jan):
I was sitting on 
-$1,300+ (-8.99%) Portfolio value: $16,584.97
(End Jan, 2nd Feb):
I am now sitting on 
-$617.32 (-3.31%) Portfolio value: $18,410.95

Thoughts and comments:
I was still reeling from my losses in short term trading positions throughout December and early January. This paralysed me into inactivity as I studied and watched the market and didn't add on any positions until mid-January. Many seem to be able to time the market and reported winnings while my portfolio stagnated with the realised losses back in December.

It is time spent in the market (invested), not timing the market.

The ability to hold positions and ride through volatility seems to be a key component of a successful investor's setup. My REITs positions generally recovered and are in the green from the December losses and again I collected some dividends. We cannot predict where Mr Market would head but we can certainly decide if Mr Market is offering up good deals. But cheap and undervalued are often different to different investors who have a varying trading/investment time frame. I began to re-consider what positions I would add to my portfolio that is suitable for my investment goals, possibly one longer term defensive counter and a short term trading position for January after sitting on the fence for some time.


Defensive stocks
Defensive stocks are stocks that are likely to be mature stocks. This means that generally, there is not much growth in them. However, on the bright side of things, they can generally withstand a market crash better as they are likely to have a high free cash flow, decent growth/very stable and consistent dividends. These stocks tend to be inert to market cycles and provides products/services that would still prove strong and in demand in a market downturn. Barriers of entry into the market, if any, are also a plus for these counters. Usual suspects would be telcos, utilities, transport, healthcare. As telcos are currently facing increased changes in the industry and I am already vested in Singtel, I decided to exclude them.

Thus, I narrowed down to looking at SBS, ComfortDelgro, Vicom,  Parkwaylife Reit, (I will look to add some of these counters to my portfolio to form the "base" of stable stocks. As of 16th Jan, I added Vicom at 6.01.)

How did some of these fare in 2008 crisis?

SBS Transit:

SBS is a familiar name as a bus services operator to many Singaporeans as we take them very often on a daily basis. SBS also has been operating MRT services since 2003 (North East Line) and 2013 (Downtown Line). It also operates the LRT lines in Sengkang and Ponggol.

In 2016, the government pumped $7 billion to move SBS transit and SMRT buses operations over to the new government bus contracting model (BCM) for better service against disruptions. 
On April 1 2018, LTA took over the assets when the government will take over ownership of the trains, signalling systems and other operating assets of the North-East Line (NEL) and the Sengkang and Punggol Light Rail Transit (LRT) systems from transport operator SBS Transit. A profit sharing between the government who will maintain the assets while bearing risks gives SBS protection from revenue hits.

On Nov 9 2018, SBS transit announced strong surge in net earnings for Q3 2018.

Historically, SBS doesn't look to be able to sustain very well looking at its chart history as generally the prices take a long time to recover in the past and it did not recover to its heights before 2008.  It looks to be able to rebound better since 2014 oil crisis. I'm not a TA expert, but is that a Head and shoulders forming? However, new industry changes are likely to give SBS transit some room for growth while having some protection from the costs of maintenance due to the new asset light model.

ComfortDelgro:
ComfortDelgro is also a familiar name to Singaporeans as it is the largest Taxi operator in Singapore. Besides its Taxi business, it also owns business segments in bus, taxi, rail, car rental and leasing, automotive engineering services, inspection and testing services, driving centres, non-emergency patient transport services, insurance broking services and outdoor advertising. These are also geographically spread in the UK and Ireland to Australia, Vietnam, Malaysia, as well as across 11 cities in China, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenyang and Chengdu.

In an old post from 2017, https://www.investingnote.com/posts/138743 CDG's Free cash flow also is very much been sustainable throughout the years. Recent price competition for its Taxi business segment by Private Hire Grab and Uber have beaten its earnings and share price but have stabilised since Uber's exit and a new normal has been achieved. I was actually looking to pick up CDG if it dropped close to $2 again but it has since rallied.

In Jan 2019, the government announced new regulations towards Private Hire companies  in a bid to streamline the taxi and private hire business. 

Vicom:


Vicom is another Subsidiary of CDG, whose main business segment are in services related to vehicle inspection and also Setsco (non-vehicular inspection and testing arm).

There is a huge plus in Vicom as vehicular checks are mandated by law and Vicom owns the biggest market segment as the largest provider. As such there is a huge barrier to entry. According to a previous comprehensive report done in 2015 by the fifth perspective, overall vehicles in Singapore have shrunk. Cars being de-registered are on the rise coupled with lesser new cars being uptaken due to COE prices. However in 2016, there was a rise in the number of rental cars in the market. This is also coupled with a corresponding shrinking population of taxis. Trends are likely to remain and the vehicle population is expected to stabilise.





Setsco, on the other hand provides a wide range of testing, calibration, inspection, consultancy and training services to the aerospace, marine and offshore, biotechnology, oil and petrochemical, building construction and electronics manufacturing industries.

According to Vicom's annual report, Setsco's performance depends on the general economic condition. Although Setsco does not publish separate annual report figures anymore, it has been keen to expand its testing capabilities over the years.


Setsco Services Pte Ltd (SETSCO), completed several notable projects – both locally and internationally – during the year 2017. SETS Services DMCC, a wholly-owned subsidiary company, was set up by SETSCO in Dubai, United Arab Emirates to provide building glass inspection services. It won a contract to undertake glass inspection work on the external facades of Gold Tower and Silver Tower, Cluster l, in Dubai. Additionally, SETSCO secured contracts for the testing of sand and granite from the Building and Construction Authority and also various testing services for the Changi Terminal 5 project in Singapore. During the year, SETSCO also completed a shutdown project at a chemical plant in Jurong Island. To broaden our scope of services, SETSCO launched two new services in the year – certification services to companies which seek compliances to the requirements of different systems such as ISO 9001, ISO 14001 and ISO 18001 and consultancy services to provide investigation, evaluation, analysis and advisory to the clients that we serve.


Vicom recently released its Q3 results in Nov 2018 and was up 5% in net profit and will announce its full year results on 11 Feb. This illiquid stock has a good cash flow and profit after paying out dividends each year and has no debts.

ParkwayLife Reit:
ParkwayLife REIT has been one of the most consistent counters with sustainable dividends and growth over the years. 
Parkway Life REIT ("PLife REIT") is Asia's largest listed healthcare REIT. It invests in income-producing real estate and real estate-related assets, used primarily for healthcare and/or healthcare-related purposes. As at 31 December 2018, PLife REIT's total portfolio size stands at 50 properties totaling approximately S$1.86 billion.

PLife owns 3 major hospitals in Singapore namely Mount Elizabeth Hospital , Gleneagles Hospital and Parkway East Hospital. It also owns Gleneagles Intan Medical Centre in Kuala Lumpur. It also owns a host nursing homes in Japan.

PLife also has a some features in place that gives it some buffer in trying times, namely the Triple Net Lease and also CPI + 1% rent review formula that guarantees 1% growth in rent if theres a deflation. For its Japan nursing homes, it also has a long term favourable lease structure with 100% committed occupancy.




Unsurprisingly, PLife's revenue and DPU have generally been on the rise over the years.

Short term trading strategies
Example of short volume analysis done on the week of 28th Jan

I have a half-baked hypothesis that I'm trying out at the moment: SGX has daily and weekly short sell volumes and recently I started to look at how these short sell volumes translate into chart movements daily, if they are absorbed well by buyers.

From what I think these should give me an indication of:
  • Short term bullishness/bearishness
  • Relative changes in traded short volumes
  • Expose me to various counters on the SGX I have never analysed before as a new investor
A recent analysis done on 30th Jan 2019

These are some of the counters that popped up from the daily analysis that took place last week. Corroboration of data with daily charts, TA and trending would help me to study some of these counters more in depth. Either way, this is still a work in progress as I can see that its giving a bit of mixed results and I cannot be sure if this is a case of "the rising tide lifts all boats".

Either way, it exposed me to a counter which I entered with a small position on 28th Jan (based on previous week). The counter entered was Citic Envirotech at $0.39.

Citic Envirotech is an S-chip (China companies listed on the Singapore stock exchange and many would siam far far away)  and is a leading membrane-based integrated environmental solutions provider specializing in water and wastewater treatment, water supply and recycling. It is also engaged in sludge and hazardous waste treatment as well as river restoration. CEL undertakes both turnkey and investment projects as well as provides plant operation and maintenance services in water and environmental projects.

Layers on Investing note did a rather comprehensive writeup on Citic even though he decided against being vested. I would have to admit that my research into this company would be paltry compared to what Layers has done. Anyway, recent news of it securing contracts are likely to boost confidence, to which I will look to sell on news.

As this is a highly speculative position for me, I am only vested in a small position.

Daily Chart

Weekly Chart


Portfolio as of 3rd February 2019


Until Next Time, 

K.C.
If you like this post, you might like our facebook page as well. I'm also on Investing Note.

Related topics:
1. About K.C. What is my story?
2. My 3Cs to money/investing
3. Why you need to set aside money for savings first
4. My 2018 Year end review

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Disclaimer: The above information are for personal discussion purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Do conduct your due diligence before making any financial decision. "30 Year Old Investor" shall not be liable for any loss or damage of any kind arising from the result of your reliance of the information contained on this site. 

Tuesday, 22 January 2019

What an ex-insurance agent will tell you about Insurance agents/companies

  Posted at  January 22, 2019 2 comments
Disclaimer: I am no longer an insurance agent but from my 2 years in the industry I have seen quite a bit of the ugly side of the industry. This post contains my personal opinions. They are meant to educate and not to constitute personal financial advice. For any decisions undertaken to purchase insurance policies, please do your own due diligence.

Recently, I saw an agent post a rather "click-baitish" post titled "Things Agents don't tell you about Whole-Life policies". He went on to summarise what he thought consumers should take note when buying whole-life policies. (It would be good to know what Whole life policies are and MoneySense has a good page informing us what a Whole Life policy is.)

His summary on his post read:

Bottom-line:

1) ALWAYS ASK FOR A COMPARISON
2) cost =/= coverage
3) Same name but different definition


Firstly, there are a few problems with this kind of over-simplified posts/trail of thought, so I would like to expand the discussion further:

1. Always ask for a comparison: 
I assume that this agent belongs to a group of "Independant Financial Advisors (IFA)". Usually, some of these IFA agents try to sell to consumers by telling them that they carry more products than a tied-agent (an agent who can only represent a single insurer) and therefore they are less biased. Is that really true?

My opinion: Just because they can carry a few more products and can do a comparison between the few products/ competitor products does not mean they are always impartial/ fair/ ethical. Many are still just product sellers. 

"Asking for comparisons" won't help much because the information is still stacked against the consumer unless the consumer is less lazy to do homework himself. A better suggestion might even be to ask for comparison from different agents/companies and doing that last lap yourself as a consumer so you know that you are not tricked by anyone!

NEVER TRUST ANYONE ELSE WITH YOUR OWN MONEY

If we rely on the agent for due diligence, we are at the mercy of the agent's mistakes. They may also be motivated by "promotions/incentives" for pushing certain products because there are better commissions to be earned for a particular period. There is just no way the end consumer will know about all these sweet deals behind the back. The only way one can eliminate the risk posed by an insurance agent is to do your due diligence, find a very trustworthy/reliable agent or eliminate the risk of the agent altogether. 




2. Cost =/= Coverage:
This can just be a lame excuse to up-sell you a more expensive plan than what you really need or push you extra coverage you may not need. Generally, similar insurance plans don't really differ by that much.

My opinion: I would rather you check with the insurance agent the ease of claim or claims history pertaining to similar policies that you are buying. Of course, if you are very rich, you can cover any thing you want as long as you can pay for it. But chances are, ordinary folks don't need excessive coverage. Lower cost and bang for buck should be what consumers go for. In fact, this is why the government came up with a way to do off with paying insurance agent's commissions!

Did you know? 

You can now go direct to insurance companies WITHOUT going through the agent? This is meant to benefit the consumer (who does not need advice). Times have changed. With the smart phone and a click of a button, you can easily become a consumer who does not need "advice" from an insurance agent.

In the past, if we wanted to buy stocks, we had to go through brokers. Nowadays, this middleman role is increasingly diminished because of online platforms and mobile apps that allow us to directly deal with stock brokerages without the middle man, thereby decreasing fees paid. The same can be said for the insurance industry. 


As long as one is not lazy he/she can easily find out what type of insurance cover they need from various resources online. There are also some very experienced advisors online who share information freely, for example, you can find alot of information regarding insurance on Wilfred Ling's page. Wilfred is a fee-based advisor who frequently posts about certain phenomenon and updates in the insurance industry. Fee-based advisors such as Wilfred plan for clients which sometimes do not result in purchase of financial products at all and hence have little to no conflict of interest (we shall touch more on that later on).

The government has even built a website meant to educate us on what is insurance, and what our needs, to even comparing direct purchase insurance based on our criteria. IF ONLY ONE ISN'T LAZY.


Introducing: CompareFIRST

3. Same name but different definition:
This at least is a sound and valid point made by the agent who describes certain differences in how companies define certain insurance jargons. The agent claims that differences in how the terms are worded can mean they are easier or harder to claim. (This is quite subjective)

My opinion: Again, this is subjective. I would again stress the importance of asking about claims history like how long it takes and what is the process like. Claims history is exactly the ease/difficulty of claiming. For example, I remember a certain case where a pregnant lady was not covered for a very specific pregnancy complications condition under other companies' Medishield plan but that particular condition was covered for one single company. But these are rare cases. Usually, these kind of complications might be hereditary (meaning they don't just happen). If you have family history, do check whether these are covered.

It is important to read the insurance contract and Product Summary for the exact terms of coverage and the technical jargons and clarify anything you are unsure of. Usually people fail to read them because they are unfamiliar but these plans will follow us so it makes sense not to buy anything we don't know/fully understand.

Sometimes, newer policies such as health policies tend to cover MORE conditions compared to older policies. But, older polices tend to be worded LESS specific and hence may be easier to claim. In this case, more might be less. Regarding health policies, some agents will therefore try to tell us that we should switch plans, so that we can get "More coverage". This is actually unethical and not recommended by the industry as it may be detrimental to the consumer. Try not to cancel any policy, especially health/medical insurance policies without verifying if you might be excluded certain conditions as you may not be as healthy as when you bought the old policy.



THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY's FLAW: COMMISSIONS

Now, we come to the main point. There is an inherent flaw with insurance agents in Singapore being compensated on a commission structure. This means that if they sell you a policy, they get a cut of money from your premiums. If they don't close a deal, they don't get anything. Usually an agent stop receiving commissions from us after 3 years into a whole life policy or investment linked policy. This is why they have to continually find new clients or try to sell us newer plans, or make us switch plans.

Linking back to the previous point about agents being able to make comparisons between different insurance products, I do know for a fact that many unethical agents just do product selling. And they tend to push products that give them the most commissions at that time so that it favours them. To them, it is just a win-win situation. (it is just human nature)

They may claim to compare for you, but they can certainly favour certain products that they are incentivised to push to you by claiming that comparably it is better. There is just no way for the end consumer to know anything about this and therefore the odds are stacked against the end consumer.

Of course, I'm critical of it, but I guess there are still some ethical agents out there, but let's just be honest to say. If rubber hits the road, we cannot be sure if the agent will take care of his own wallet or ours. The commission structure therefore may force our insurance agents to put their needs before our needs or even influence them to make detrimental decisions for clients.

At the end of the day, agents come and go. But we will be the ones to be "stuck" with the insurance plans for life. Therefore, I would urge us not to spare that little time and be diligent in our whole planning of finances, including insurance.

This is why as long as the insurance industry stays as a commission structure, there will always be a conflict of interest. This rings true even for agents who claim to be from "independant agencies". We should take ownership of our own insurance portfolios because there will be none to blame other then ourselves when disputes of claims arises.

Did you know? 
There is a difference between how insurers sees what a good agent is vs. how a consumer sees it. The good agent for the insurer is the one that brings in the most sales and the insurer rewards them with monetary incentives and other incentives such as paid travel trips for hitting sales quotas and targets. The good agent for the consumer is the one that takes cares of the needs of the consumer and we hope that he is ethical. Unfortunately, we cannot be sure that ethical agents won't be moved/ influenced to make decisions to maximise their own benefit at the expense of the consumer.

Indeed, there has been much criticism of how the industry's commission structure and how it has led to unethical practices such as switching or churning. (as described in article below)

On 30th November 2018, an article came out in the Straits Times:

Singapore life insurers in growing unease as MAS zooms in on agents' compensation


SINGAPORE - Singapore's financial regulator has ramped up efforts in recent weeks to look more deeply into life insurers' compensation structures for agents, triggering a sense of nervousness in the industry.

The Straits Times understands from market sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, that senior agency leaders of Prudential - one of the major life insurance players - were roped in to help with queries from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) more than a month ago.

Separately, the MAS also paid a visit to an office linked to Aviva, one of the smaller players, although details are not clear, they added.

Prudential has declined comment while Aviva could not be reached.

Some others have been asked to furnish the regulator with information on how they compensate agents or advisers if they also have their own financial advisory arms.

The line of questioning, ST was told, is centred on whether insurers who rely on agents or advisers to distribute their products have breached any rules in their compensation structures.

"They are reviewing all the big deals that are going on and how various parties are being renumerated," one industry veteran said.

Recent developments have triggered a sense of unease in the industry, with two senior executives saying there are concerns there will be "draconian" rules dictating how insurers pay their agents or advisers.

A chief executive of a financial advisory firm told ST: "I think it's good that MAS takes proactive steps to look into this (issue)." He added that he believes MAS will not "try to meddle too much into how a firm compensates", as a framework on this is already in place.

In the past two years, there have been reports of buyouts from several life insurance players including AIA and Aviva.

It is common practice to offer migration or buyout packages when poaching, not unlike practices in other sectors including the legal sector.

But renewed poaching activity in the later half of 2017 caught the attention of the MAS, which previously said it would keep close tabs on mass migration developments.

Observers have pointed out that poached agents have to meet their new targets set by the insurer, in turn creating higher risks of switching or churning of policies.

Policy switching refers to the replacement of existing insurance plan issued by another company under the inducement of agents or advisers, while churning occurs when an adviser or agent buys and sells different policies frequently under a policyholder's account, thereby generating a lot commission but does little to meet the needs of the client.

Currently, the MAS is finalising regulations on proposed measures to govern large scale movement of advisers from one financial advisory firm to another.

The regulator issued a consultation paper in March this year on these suggestions.

In the same month, the Life Insurance Association Singapore also issued industry guidelines on sign-on incentives to promote more responsible recruitment practices in the industry to safeguard the interests of consumers.

These include setting sales targets at a reasonable level, paying sign-on incentives over a minimum period of six years and enhanced monitoring of the agents for at least two years.

I would humbly suggest:

1. EDUCATE YOURSELF: Find out what Insurance is and how it works 
http://www.lia.org.sg/ (Life Insurance Association, Singapore)
https://www.moneysense.gov.sg/insurance (MoneySense)

First and foremost think about your own insurance portfolio as a whole. It's aim is to prevent us from financial disaster. If we have dependants (family) who will be affected adversely if we meet any misfortune, we need to plan our insurance accordingly. Understand what insurance policies are used for. Always question what is their purpose in your financial portfolio. If you do not have a purpose for any of them, you don't need them!

2. Ask for facts/ figures and terms:
When you meet the agent, ask for the benefit illustration and the definitive terms of the insurance contracts. See the numbers and look at the facts and defined terms instead of being sweet-talked into buying a plan just because you trust your friend/agent. This is not being offensive, just pragmatic since we are on the receiving end of it. Do some research on the policy. Ask about any Claims history the policy has from the agent. Take note if you have medical conditions or anything hereditary that runs in the family. Find out how those conditions may affect you.

3. Protect yourself as a consumer:
When you sign an insurance plan, do be aware that there is actually a 14 days "free-look" period where you can cancel the policy without suffering any penalty. This is a feature to protect the consumer such that we can cancel any policy after we go back and really evaluate our situation and how the insurance policy makes sense for us.

Did you know? 
You can also look up an insurance agent's Representatives Notification Framework (RNF) code or number which at the MAS website to see if the agent has any previous records of disciplinary infractions on his conduct. (Currently under maintenance, I will update the link here later on)

 http://www.mas.gov.sg/fi_directory/RR_index.html 
http://www.mas.gov.sg/Regulations-and-Financial-Stability/Regulations-Guidance-and-Licensing/Financial-Advisers/Register-of-Representatives.aspx (Links are still broken on this page, they are updating the site)

It is important to know who you are dealing with and he/she should be someone competent without any integrity issues.

4. Never, never never mix insurance and investments:
The cost of investing with an insurer is akin to eating a sweet with a thick layer of wrapping paper to make the sweet look big. Retail investors should seek to keep costings low so as to maximise returns over time. Tip: Look at the "Cost of deductions/ Effects of deductions" on Benefit Illustrations.

I would encourage retail investors to try to look for lower cost investment vehicles such as ETF with banks or even Singapore savings bonds than put with endowment or Investment-linked products because of lower cost and there is no lock-in period or penalties for early withdrawal of money.

Recently, Kyith at investment moats also wrote a very interesting article for which I leave you to draw your own conclusions:
Does your Insurance Saving Plans (Endowment) give you 3 to 5% returns?

Of course, there are people who are lazy but are rich and can afford it.

If you are lazy and still want to be rich, something has gotta give. The Singapore insurance industry has come a long way since but there is still work to be done to better protect the consumer. But, there are just some things we do not want to leave to chance.


Until Next Time,
K.C.

Thursday, 20 December 2018

2018 Year End Review

  Posted at  December 20, 2018 2 comments

End of 2018 is near. I set out to achieve the following goals as listed previously in a blog post: 

My 2018 Goal and objectives:
https://30yearoldinvestor.blogspot.com/2018/02/my-reits-plan-for-year-and-my-first.html

Goals:
1. Save between lower target of $12,000 and higher target of $15,000 and buy REITS.
Comment: I achieved my savings target of $15,000. In fact, I saved a total of $18,222.79.

2. Buy one REIT/Dividend Stock every 2 months to lower the cost (DBS cash upfront)
Comment: I currently hold 2 REITs, 1 stock and Singapore Savings Bonds. I refrained from making too many transactions so as to minimise cost. And also decided to hold more cash for better opportunities/entries, or to buy a REIT with more lots to minimise costing.

Statistics for the year and reflections:

Current holdings: 

Stock nameCodeEntry priceSharesPrice% Allocation
1FCOTND8U1.467410001467.378.85
2FLTBUOU1.071225002677.8816.15
3SingtelZ743.318210003318.1620.01
4SSBjust for reference1.00002000200212.07
5
6
7Cash7119.5642.93
Total Amount16584.97
*figures do not contain CPF and insurance commitments

Straits Times Index YTD performance: -10.35%
My portfolio performance: -8.99%
Dividends collected YTD: $350.75

Comment: My only profitable counter for this year was Frasers Logistic and Industrial Trust. My main losses came from trying to trade positions in AEM, Creative and APTT. Those did not go well as it is very difficult to do trading while I am at work. Work demands make it almost impossible as I am not able to play with the BBs in action. I was trying to make quick trades but halfway had to attend to work. Things got ugly and I got stuck having to make cut-losses to ensure that I stay on course for my savings plans. 

With the market getting more volatile and more scares of a impending bear market, perhaps the attractiveness of the Singapore Savings Bonds as a safe-haven for cash makes it very useful.



Projection: 

I have worked out a rough estimation based on calculations like a "benefit illustration"

To attain my Goal would depend on 3 income drivers:
1. Capital Gain from Portfolio
2. Increase in income that I am able to save (depends on advancing career)
3. Growth in dividend income collected.

I should do better at the savings portion over time so this is likely a very pessimistic bare minimum non-negotiable I have to try to hit.

*Bright green show actual figures.

End of Year
Age
PortfolioCurrent capitalEstimated
Projected 2%/yrinjection Rate/yrDividend 3%
201831$16,584.97$12,000.00$497.55
201932$29,414.22$12,000.00$882.43
202033$42,884.93$12,000.00$1,286.55
202134$57,029.18$12,000.00$1,710.88
202235$71,880.63$12,000.00$2,156.42
202336$87,474.67$12,000.00$2,624.24
202437$103,848.40$12,000.00$3,115.45
202538$121,040.82$12,000.00$3,631.22
202639$139,092.86$12,000.00$4,172.79
202740$158,047.50$12,000.00$4,741.43
202841$177,949.88$12,000.00$5,338.50
202942$198,847.37$12,000.00$5,965.42
203043$220,789.74$12,000.00$6,623.69
203144$243,829.23$12,000.00$7,314.88
203245$268,020.69$12,000.00$8,040.62
203346$293,421.72$12,000.00$8,802.65
203447$320,092.81$12,000.00$9,602.78
203548$348,097.45$12,000.00$10,442.92
203649$377,502.32$12,000.00$11,325.07
203750$408,377.44$12,000.00$12,251.32
203851$440,796.31$12,000.00$13,223.89
203952$474,836.13$12,000.00$14,245.08
204053$510,577.93$12,000.00$15,317.34
204154$548,106.83$12,000.00$16,443.20
204255$587,512.17$12,000.00$17,625.37
204356$628,887.78$12,000.00$18,866.63
204457$672,332.17$12,000.00$20,169.97
204558$717,948.78$12,000.00$21,538.46
204659$765,846.22$12,000.00$22,975.39
204760$816,138.53$12,000.00$24,484.16
Total$816,138.53$360,000.00$295,416.29

Based on projections:
- Assuming I manage to save only $1,000 per month,
- With no salary growth whatsoever
- Portfolio has to gain overall 6% per year
- Dividends reinvested
- Retiring for $2k/month (expected to reach by age 60)

Comment: I have decided to moderate the growth % to 5% as I'm not so confident that I am able to consistently grow it at 5%. I would still need more time to study how to be more profitable as compared to now. This year was a productive year at work and I received cash awards from my work. I have not planned them into my projections as they are likely to be non-repeatable.

Wishing you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year ahead! As the bull and bear wrestle over the next few months hope we hang on tight.

Until Next Time,
K.C.



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30 Year Old Investor
Sow today, Reap Tomorrow

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About

You don't need to pay anyone/company to have a plan of your own and work towards achieving Financial Independence. Only we alone have no conflict of interest with our own money. "30 Year Old Investor" is a personal blog about a Singaporean's savings and investing journey.


Being the average Singaporean, K.C. is also interested in good food, a little bit of politics and a good slice of humour.

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