Thursday, 19 March 2020

Covid-19 Crash: Amusing behaviours encountered + updates

  Posted at  March 19, 2020 2 comments
"Your blog is growing grass!" a reader J exclaimed over a Whatsapp chat as we exchanged updates on latest developments on the Covid-19. Sheepishly, I gave a weak excuse and later admitted that I have been lazy.

Indeed, my regular interactions have been reduced to just 2 small chat groups with some of my closest investor friends. Late February, the market caught many off guard as many are not sure what to make of the market tanking in our blank faces. Some bought in thinking it would rise back up as previous times last year.

Of course, this time is different. The crash finally arrived.

The tl;dr 5 min summary:

1. Background: This February-March 2020 market crash is probably the worst we've had in recorded history. It has been waiting to happen for sometime. In the Covid-19 pandemic and Oil price war, we've finally met the triggers that sparked the downward spiral. I do not think that this market crash will let up anytime soon, given that the Covid-19 is just about to reach it's peak in Europe and just starting in the US. There could be more room to fall.

2. KC encountered some amusing investor/ trader behaviours this crash:
- Behaviour 1: A few readers asking KC how to open CDP/brokerage accounts saying "We want to invest because the markets crashed!"

- Behaviour 2: One reader, without any prior investing knowledge or knowing anything plonked all his money into derivatives tanking substantial losses. (good luck) "All IN!" "High risk, High Gain!"

3. Personal Updates and thoughts:
- KC was busy from January to March due to run in of night class modules (3 days night classes per week). Exams plus assignments plus exams plus assignments... it's finally going to be over soon.
- KC is also working hard with new projects, new opportunities and responsibilities given at work.
- KC been saving cash since November 2019.
- Portfolio tanking a -15% loss at the moment.
- Some seasoned investor friends have shared with me that this period is a highly stressful period for them as this is truly an unprecedented black swan event. >30% loss over 2 weeks is quite heavy to stomach.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The backdrop: A Market Wide Crash
Global markets plummeted since late February and have fallen about 30% off from its peak given the backdrop of 2 triggers:

1. Covid-19: An unknown Coronavirus that (probably) originated in China during late November 2019 sparked mass panic in a number of South East Asian countries before causing widespread panic similarly when the pandemic reached Europe eventually and US soil later on. Globally, businesses are suffering with some companies at the forefront of it (such as tourism, hospitality, airline companies). This is mainly due to a huge drop in consumption of goods and services globally out of fear and panic of the risks of contracting the virus.

Dow Jones index dropped about 30% from recent high.
Interestingly, the US market did not respond to monetary policies rolled out by the Trump administration nor the quantitative easing (QE) policies from Fed cuts. This was unlike previous round of QE when it seemingly propped up and supported the market and businesses alike.

2: Russia-Saudi Arabia Oil Price War: As an employee working in the Oil and Gas industry, I could say this has been an "accident" waiting for a long time to happen. We've all probably known for the longest time that Oil prices are artificially controlled with limits placed on production on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies.

By U.S. Energy Information Administration - https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/archive/00351705.pdf (Monthly Energy Review, May 2017, Figure 11.1a), Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=3457602
Over the years, technology have improved such that we are now able to produce much more oil and more efficiently. Basic demand and supply dictates that without any intervention, market forces would drive the prices down.

Now, Russia and Saudi Arabia have picked quite an interesting time to have a go at each other with nobody wanting to back out from selling their oil. Both Russia and Saudi seem okay with trying to kill their competition by engaging in a price war. The result is that oil price is also down about 20%.

Is this going to stop soon?
With the market tanking in such a manner, I personally think it is unlikely that this would let up anytime soon. China seems to have walked out of the episode but over in Europe and US, panic is reaching an all time high.

The extent of devastation is evident in the sheer numbers of deaths.

From an economic standpoint of view: even if we manage to eradicate the virus tomorrow, the effects of the Covid-19 are far reaching and will have a lasting impact on the global economy. We have to be prepared to last for the long haul as investors because this looks like a prolonged period of downturn.

If China's spread lasted from late November 2019 to Mid March, the situation in Europe could carry another 2 months plus at least, and 3-4 months in US at the very least. This means we will have to look towards June to know if there is any chance of it turning around.

Amusing behaviours (encountered as an investor/blogger)
With the market tanking 30% over a matter of days in weeks, some readers finally decided to take action to open their investing accounts. While it is good that you finally take what many have been advocating to start investing, I would encourage new investors to remain cautious because we are now into uncharted territory.

"I want to invest because the market crashed!" one friend told me.

Anyway, I pointed them to resources on how to get started. I could sense that feeling of euphoria and enthusiasm that it seemed such a downer to ask my friend to be more cautious and learn the basics first before diving head in into the work of investing/ trading. I remember my own sense of excitement when I decided to start investing as well.

Well, at least even a lay man could tell what this stock market crash means. It is a 10 year one time golden opportunity to accumulate stocks on the "cheap". But, the challenge here is that there is some danger here.

Lack of capital and the trouble of bottom fishing

As new investors, I know too well that one of the main constraints is actually having a discipline towards saving: this is the pre-cursor to having capital to deploy. For budding investors, many of us do not have enough to deploy. This is because investments are ideally suitable only for money that we do not need immediately. (Meaning we are able to take a certain degree of losses on them). This is also known as the ability to hold, or holding power. We will not be forced to liquidate positions due to a lack of cash for our daily use.

This therefore requires some careful planning and objective goal setting. As a new investor I would say that the objectives boil down to these 3 points: (at least personally)

1. Having a discipline to save / finding more income
The crash is going to pass us by if we don't have any capital to deploy when it comes back up eventually. Most friends I know simply don't save enough. We are living it up and spending on items such as gaining travel experiences and entertainment. It's not too late to start planning to save a portion first before spending on what you want.

2. Minimising costs of investing
The most absurd thing I've heard from a financial planner friend is that :"If she can earn 6% for her client, it is only right for her to take 2-3% (as commissions)" As a former planner myself, I can tell you that many people who manage others' money out there are only interested in lining their own pockets. You will do yourself a service to learn how to invest at lower costs. Otherwise, you are just helping others to get rich.

3. Managing the downside risks and making calculated risks for potential gain
The crux message of this point is essentially risk management. You identify the potential hazards ahead of your investing journey and doing your best to mitigate them by evaluating the control measures you are going to take to limit your losses. For example, to invest in stocks, you would do well to educate yourself on how to evaluate stocks. Another way, of course is to jump in and find out later that you are swimming with in the sea with no life jackets.

I think one of my friends did a bad move
Recently out of the blue, one of my friends who asked me about how to start investing told me that he probably made a stupid mistake.

He told me that he started "investing" but is tanking some 30-40% loss when the week before I specifically warned that the market crash was going to get worse.

On further pressing, I discovered that he was "investing" in derivatives but do not understand the nature of derivatives and it being a leveraged tool. He thought that it was the same as stocks. In my opinion, this was probably the worst way one can start investing. Firstly, he did not understand the tool (derivative being used here) and how it works. Secondly, there is no plan, no nothing.

Just simply "High risk high gain, and ALL IN".

I questioned what is the rationale for using this derivative tool. He mentions that investing in traditional stock is far too slow. Using the derivative allows leveraging an "higher potential returns."

"Be greedy when others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy". 

At this point, I'm rather stumped for words. I wonder if there were more friends like this one who is plonking all his hard earned money this way. Luck seldom makes one rich, and if we depended on luck its more akin to gambling than anything else.

Please people, exercise caution and restraint. This is not like going to the supermarket and snatching what is available with the panic FOMO buys.

March Personal updates and thoughts
My night classes are finally coming to an end: I have no idea if I made it in the final assessment due to my hectic schedule from February to March. I will find out at the end of the month.

Work wise, I have been given new opportunities to shine at work and I'm devoting a huge time and effort to ensure so (which explains why I'm having less time here). However, due to the Covid-19, a chance to go overseas for a short stint has probably gone up in smoke. Over at my new company, news of retrenchment again is announced. Luckily this time, I am not affected. I checked with a few of my friends in the same sector and it was quite congruent that many are cutting people now given the bleak outlook ahead.

Portfolio wise: 

I've not added any more new positions since late last year and been keeping cash. Current invested amount is around $18,000 and the current value is around $14,000. I'm sitting on $30,000 cash pile but am hesitant to deploy it since it is partially earmarked as wedding planning fund.

Shocked, with trembling fear:
One of my closest investor friend who is arguably my most profitable trading/investing friend saw his profits from a few years earlier wiped out during the circuit-breaker weeks where the markets dropped 7% and were halted. He personally told me that this was an unprecedented move and it is certainly a highly stressful event for him.

If we cannot stomach those losses then we probably shouldn't be investing. It is perfectly fine if one does not invest: as long as you live within means and spend less than what you earn, technically you don't need to.

Stay Safe, Play Safe.

p.s. Special thanks to Pete for proof-reading. But there might still be some grammatical errors. :)

K.C.
If you like this post, you might like our facebook page as well. I'm also on Investing Note.

7. Why I refuse to spend >15-30 minutes budgeting each month

Disclaimer: The views expressed, opinion and information in this article are strictly for informational purposes to encourage educational discussions only. It is important to conduct your own analysis before making any investment decisions based on your own personal circumstances. You should take reasonable measures such as seeking independent financial advice from professionals and/or independently research and verify the information that you find on "30 Year Old Investor" before undertaking any important investment decisions. No content on this site constitutes - or should be understood as constituting - a recommendation to enter any securities transactions or to engage in any of the investment strategies presented in our site content. We do not provide personalised recommendations or views as to whether a particular stock or investment approach is suitable to the financial needs of a specific individual. No representation or warranty expressed or implied is made as to, and no reliance shall be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained on this website. "30 Year Old Investor" shall not be liable whatsoever for loss or damages of any kind arising from the result of any use, reliance or distribution of the articles or its contents from information contained on this website. 

Tuesday, 7 January 2020

Portfolio/ Work Outlook 2020 & interesting reads (8th Jan)

  Posted at  January 07, 2020 2 comments









Wishing fellow investors, friends and readers a HAPPY NEW YEAR 2020!

A few readers have started to gently remind me that I'm late for my blog post update! 😅 Would firstly like to thank all of you for your continued support and concern since I started investing in February 2018. Time flies, 2 years have passed in a blink of an eye.

tl;dr (Too long, didn't read) Summary:
1. Busy Dec Period: Taking a toll but Fruitful - 
Work, studies and relationship commitments have taken up considerable time.

2. Portfolio update: Outlook for next 2-3 years -
Investment portfolio is likely to take a backseat. Currently, I am gearing up for wedding/HDB. If you have any pro-tips regarding couple finance/ saving for HDB/Wedding, please do leave a comment/drop me an email! 😊

3. Work update: Performance for the year/ Career building - 
Career is at a stage it can go either way. I need to secure a promotion before the current boss moves on to his next post (2 years target, 4 years max). Overall secured a good performance this year and will have chance for further exposure.

4. Interesting reads and thoughts of KC
- Sing vs. Singh
- LV's success and why we should aim to go over to business side on a company as an employee.
- Sugar baby: Would you be one?

1. Busy Dec Period: Taking a toll but Fruitful

Work:
Indeed, December has been a crazy month with my work as I saw a ramp up of work activities due to my department trying to spend the allocated funds for projects.

Gatherings/Paktor (dating):
Christmas and New Year was also a great time to get together with friends whom I have not seen for some time to catch up as well as to spend time with our loved ones. I would like to thank my loved ones for being my pillar of strength and support. You know who you are! ❤️ And so, one colleague and a long time University buddy both invited me to their HDB. Co-incidentally, both are in Sengkang. And so, it kickstarted a HDB conversation between my partner and I. One thing I learnt was that renovations could be cheap(er) and your house turns out more unique/ customised if you do not go to the interior designer.

Night Classes:
My night classes are starting to take its toll on my body with packed classes in the evenings on most Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. I have to somehow last till end of March. Short term pain for Long term gain. Press on!!

2. Portfolio update: Outlook for next 2-3 years

My Priorities have changed: for the next 2-3 years, from being a single person to starting preparations for marriage. As a result, my portfolio savings goals is likely to take a hit. Something has got to give way so I will have to be more prudent in my daily spending to maximise my savings over this period.

This also means that I will have minimal capital to deploy and will have to be more prudent in screening my counters. First and foremost, the bottleneck would be savings and the main constraint is the limited amount of salary I have. It is either I spend less, save more or I increase my salary somehow.

I am also on the lookout for BTO but I am quite inexperienced in this aspect: if you have any opinion and good advice regarding HDB/BTO, feel free to drop a comment below or drop me an email. I would really appreciate it!

On my portfolio side, there is some speculation that AIMS Apac Reit would be in for a M&A: https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1778469. Meanwhile I would keep calm and collect my dividends.

Portfolio as of Jan 2020
Stock nameCodeEntry priceSharesPrice% AllocationType
1FCOTND8U1.467410001467.373.61Base
2FLTBUOU1.071225002677.886.60Base
3SingtelZ743.318210003318.168.17Base
4APTTS7OU0.1631100001631.44.02Base
5VicomV016.03405003016.997.43Base
6SSBJust for reference1.0000200020024.93Base
7
8AimsO5RU1.380030004152.4810.23Base
9Cash$22,333.06*55.01Cash
Total Amount$40,599.34100.00

- Portfolio value is $42,318.06 at end of 2019.
- *$20,000 earmarked for wedding/housing fund. (expect my portfolio to take a hit)

Short Term Goal 2-3 years
Wedding/Housing Fund Target: (approx. $800 per month min.)

YearYear Start ValueTarget ValueActual Value
2020$20,000$29,600
2021$29,600$39,200
2022$39,200$48,800

Projections (since inception):
Road to Financial Independence
PROJECTIONACTUAL FIGURES
YearAgePortfolio
Projected 2%/yr
Current capital
injection Rate/yr
Estimated
Dividend 3%
Actual Portfolio
at end of yr
Actual Capital
Injection/yr
Actual
Dividends
201831$12,000.00$12,000.00$360.00$15,941.59$16,928.40513.25
201932$24,600.00$12,000.00$738.00$42,318.06$23,670.94$890.54
202033$37,830.00$12,000.00$1,134.90$22,318.06
(Till Date)


(-$20,000 for Wedding/HDB fund)
-
(Till Date)

(Till Date)

Long term portfolio goals would stay as per the table under the Portfolio Update page. It remains to be seen how much I would be affected with the goals shift. 

3. Work update: Performance for the year/ Career building

My job transition has stabilised and it is time to think about improving my current skillset so that I can hopefully move up to the next level in my career.

I have been incredibly lucky to secure a pay raise and severance (previously retrenched) as well as a chance to travel abroad for business for exposure in my new employment.

Added responsibilities beyond current job scope (can be a double-edged sword):
The positive here is that my current boss thinks that I am performing well and turning out good results as compared to a few colleagues who are in a similar level to my role despite only being in my role for half a year. Consequently, I will have a chance to prove myself as I take on added work (tasks for the next level job) outside of the core responsibilities of my current role as well as more opportunities to gain exposure and experience.

The drawback is that I will definitely have less time for monitoring that market (which is probably fine since I will have less capital to deploy). And also, past experience at my old company where I was retrenched has taught me that things can change very fast, especially if my boss were to be changed by the management or re-located to elsewhere in the company.

I might lose favour and get stuck so I am under some pressure to push and secure for the promotion fast within 2 years. If I do not manage to secure this by end of 4 years, it would mean that I have got stuck because by then my current boss is likely to move on to his next post.

--------------------------------------------------

4. Interesting reads and thoughts of KC (8/1/2020)

#1: Sing vs. Singh: Singaporeans vs. PRs?



Read More: https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/chan-chun-sing-and-pritam-singh-spar-parliament-over-data-distribution-new-jobs-among

Read More: https://www.todayonline.com/commentary/singapores-economic-growth-and-job-creation-have-benefited-citizens-more-foreigners

*Disclaimer: This is just my opinion and based on anecdotal experiences. I am not siding any political party, but more concerned about Singaporean's future and my own future as a Singaporean.

One of the major talking points that have caught my attention was this Sing vs. Singh showdown in parliament where our opposition is questioning and pressing our ruling party to inform us of the exact breakdown of Singaporeans and PRs in what is defined as "local PMETs"

This is a tough and a cold hard truth Singaporeans may have to face: Are Singaporeans these days so strawberry that we have to rely on policies to guarantee we get ahead in this supposedly meritocratic system?

But, if we go down such a path, it is dangerous because in the private sector, work quality counts. And in some cases, the work quality I have seen from some of my Singaporean colleagues really make it hard to justify putting them ahead of FTs in my various stints at a few MNCs. Many of the FTs I have worked with in MNCs have good exposure, turn out better work quality, better work attitude and are far more humble and open to learn than Singaporean colleagues.

I really feel that the government should release the statistics and let us draw our own conclusions. If we are failing, we need to know and we need a knock on our heads, fast.

#2: The Story behind Louis Vuitton

  

In my previous blog post, I shared this video (a documentary on LV's success I watched on my flight back):

Firstly, I gained a good understanding of branding and business models of a successful business that I find is commonly found in other businesses as well. Successful businesses often are able to charge premium for their products, create a good and loyal customer experience and while earning a high margin. From an investing point of view, a 40% margin would mean a highly profitable business.



A breakdown of LV's cost in a bag is as the picture above.

The people who actually make the bag only earn the pie from 10% of the price of the bag. The sales person earns from the 50% pie, while the company takes in 40% profit. I find this a sobering thought now that I am in a business related function, having come from a technical background within my industry. Folks in the business side have far more chances for advancements while the manufacturing folks are often kept there (don't fix what isn't spoilt) as production managers in the manufacturing departments often try to keep things status quo.

I used to envision a career in Technical, but in most companies, Sales teams often have a louder voice and are the decision makers in the company. This is true for my current and previous company. Even if you make the world's best bag, it would be nothing if nobody knew about it and none of it gets sold.

Where would we want to be in a company? Think again.

I could be misguided by my own experiences but I would definitely want to leverage on my technical experience to try to gravitate towards sales/marketing functions and customer facing roles as I can already feel a considerable difference being employed on the business side.

#3: Sugar baby: Would you be one?



At this point... just want to put out the supposed "benefits" of sugar dating the lady got:

- HP laptop
- Pandora custom made necklace
- Hotel stays and private yacht trips
- Iphone
- ~ $3,000 SGD allowance
- Support daily expenses, pay for student loans

I'm rather speechless with this one. But I do think she is rather brave to be truthful about this. I think she has a day job that earns around $3,000 as well so I guess this gives her the ability to sustain the kind of lifestyle or dating she wants. I just can't help but wonder if this is an exploitation disguised as 'dating'.

Read More: https://www.businessinsider.sg/sugar-baby-relationship-sugar-daddy-what-its-like-2019-8/?r=US&IR=T

What do you think?

K.C.
If you like this post, you might like our facebook page as well. I'm also on Investing Note.

7. Why I refuse to spend >15-30 minutes budgeting each month

Disclaimer: The views expressed, opinion and information in this article are strictly for informational purposes to encourage educational discussions only. It is important to conduct your own analysis before making any investment decisions based on your own personal circumstances. You should take reasonable measures such as seeking independent financial advice from professionals and/or independently research and verify the information that you find on "30 Year Old Investor" before undertaking any important investment decisions. No content on this site constitutes - or should be understood as constituting - a recommendation to enter any securities transactions or to engage in any of the investment strategies presented in our site content. We do not provide personalised recommendations or views as to whether a particular stock or investment approach is suitable to the financial needs of a specific individual. No representation or warranty expressed or implied is made as to, and no reliance shall be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained on this website. "30 Year Old Investor" shall not be liable whatsoever for loss or damages of any kind arising from the result of any use, reliance or distribution of the articles or its contents from information contained on this website. 

Sunday, 24 November 2019

Nov Update: Sold Japfa, added AIMS reit and thoughts on company trip 😛

  Posted at  November 24, 2019 4 comments








2019 has been a good year (overall) for me.
From being retrenched to getting a pay raise and new opportunities: I did get more busy with work and commitments but it would be best to capture down my thoughts while they are still fresh.

NOVEMBER UPDATE (STOCKS):
I have been purely focusing on my work which I have gotten up to speed. As a result, there were only 2 stocks that I have purchased from the period of late June up till November:

The two stocks are Japfa (SGX:UD2) and AIMS APAC Reit (SGX:O5RU). I will go straight to the point regarding the motivations behind getting these 2 counters. These 2 counters experienced some distress which caused their stock price to be "punished". The fundamentals of these 2 remained largely unchanged but was beat down due to short term reasons.

Japfa (SGX:UD2)
Source: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/brokers-take-cgs-cimb-downgrades-japfa-to-reduce-after-african-swine-fever
For Japfa, in early March, there were already calls for it to be downgraded. This was on the backdrop of the African swine fever outbreak. This presents a crisis as fear whipped the stock down.

Source: Japfa website
Japfa's profile: Has 3 segments namely the Dairy, Animal Protein and Consumer food segments.

Japfa's dairy segment:
Source: Japfa website
Some of us might be familiar with the Greenfields label branding. That comes from Japfa. Japfa runs farms in China (over 72,000 imported Holstein cattle) and also farms and milk processing facilities in Indonesia. This caters to the needs of the region (Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, The Philippines, Myanmar and Cambodia) with Singapore as the distributing point.

Japfa's consumer food segment
Japfa also supplies processed food with their own supply of poultry, beef and aquaculture farms to mainly the Indonesia market and also Vietnam.

Japfa's animal protein segment (the troubled one):
Source: Japfa website
Source: http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/programmes/en/empres/ASF/situation_update.html
This is the troubled segment for Japfa:

The African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak hit its swine business as Japfa engages in Swine feed manufacturing & distribution, GP-PS breeding, Commercial piglet production & distribution and Fattening of commercial piglets under JAPFA COMFEED VIETNAM LTD. CO. The ASF hit a host of asian countries from late 2018 and continued through most of 2019 as countries took action to control the outbreak with pig culling, legislation on illegal vaccines, movement control.

Source: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/indonesia-says-throw-eggs-away-to-support-chicken-meat-prices
Another stressed segment is its Poultry segment in Indonesia. Poultry prices and egg prices collapsed and the average retail price of chicken meat has plunged 25 per cent this year to 30,050 rupiah (S$3) per kilogram, the lowest since at least July 2016.




I entered Japfa on 21 June with EP of $0.535. From March onwards it was on a downtrend and headwind from the distressed segments played out. However it has since rebounded off in October. This was probably off the news Japfa posting revenue of US$952.2 million, with an 8.5% growth compared to US$877.4 million of the same period last year (despite the troubles).

Source : Japfa 3Q2019 Financial Results

One interesting point to note was that while overall Revenue increased, the operating profitability dropped significantly. As such I would expect it to start retracing, but this run could continue for a while through to the Chinese New Year festive periods.

Japfa Summary Action:
EP: $0.535  (10,000 shares) - 21 Jun 2019
Sold: $0.555 - 8 Nov 2019

Happy to sell for a small small profit to fund one of my overseas purchase since it was a relatively short term speculative position. (Short term because I think of myself as a passive long term investor) All that work for $150 gain, I know I know. lol. I admit I was okay to just breakeven given the backdrop of having to stomach it going down to 0.4X. More astute investors/traders among my circle added more when it went down further. I did not. So therefore, I still think my emotional side is not as disciplined in execution of trade plans. Hindsight is 20/20 as they say. But I'm happy to reduce losses from last year, no matter how small the amount is.

I was able to hold down on my EP even when it dropped to lows of $0.45 because of holding power. As I did not need the money invested I could afford to hold it until it turnaround. However, I did not expect it to continue in an upward trend as it is doing now (Short term uptrend intact). I would expect it to retrace at some point later on.

AIMS APAC Reit or AAreit (SGX:O5RU)
Source: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/hot-stock-aa-reit-tumbles-68-after-bookbuilding-exercise
The case for AAreit is a more straightforward one. (Will not go into fundamentals of AAreit, but you may want to check out its website). The Trust mainly invests in a portfolio of income-producing real estate located across the Asia Pacific (industrial purposes, including warehousing and distribution activities, business park activities and manufacturing activities.)

According to a Business times article (16 Oct 19): "AIMS Financial, AA Reit’s sole sponsor, had placed out 70.3 million secondary units in the Reit at S$1.35 apiece, raising some S$94.9 million. It also represents an 8.8 per cent discount to the units' closing price of S$1.48 on Oct 15.

The placement units comprised 10.09 per cent of the total number of AA Reit units currently in issue. They were placed out to predominantly new investors, including institutional, sovereign wealth, family office and high net worth investors across the Asia-Pacific and Europe, the manager said during the midday break.

The secondary placement occurred via a bookbuilding process by Merrill Lynch (Singapore), DBS Bank and Maybank Kim Eng Securities on the same day."

New shares or old shares?

Another Business Times article said on the same day: "The placement came after AIMS exercised the call option relating to the 70.3 million units, which were previously held by AIMS' former joint venture partner AMP Capital Investors and its affiliates."


https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/secondaryoffering.asp

According to investopedia, "There are two types of secondary offerings. A non-dilutive secondary offering is a sale of securities in which one or more major stockholders in a company sell all or a large portion of their holdings. The proceeds from this sale are paid to the stockholders that sell their shares. Meanwhile, a dilutive secondary offering involves creating new shares and offering them for public sale."

Since the 70.3 million units were previously held, they couldn't have been new units. (therefore technically, non-dilutive) but it got punished nonetheless.

Of course, if we were existing holders, this feels like a "dilution" although it is not as they sold it cheaper than valuation. But since I did not hold any shares, the "punished" stock presented a rare buying in opportunity - with the fundamentals unchanged.

AAreit Summary Action:
EP: $1.38 (3,000 shares) - 18 Oct 2019

I do think that this stock can be held down for the longer term. I wanted to buy 6,000 shares but as usual of my plan sizing, I will buy half. This is also in line with my aims to keep a certain amount of cash.

Update: AAreit also offered a DRP (reinvestment plan) to give out recent dividends at the price of $1.368. (current trading at 1.44) which I will subscribe for this time.

Stock monitoring at the moment:

I am looking at Mapletree NAC Tr (SGX: RW0U) and HongkongLand USD (SGX: H78). This is because with the situation in Hong Kong, this stock has similarly been "punished".

Source: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/mapletree-nac-trust-says-damaged-hong-kong-mall-still-closed
However, I would likely adopt a "wait and see" attitude as I don't think the situation is likely to dissolve itself soon. This kind of events are usually rare and the scale of disruption to this is far worse that that of AAreit (considered mildest) to Japfa (a mid term crisis brought about by ASF and poultry prices' demand and supply).

MNAC, for example has fallen from recent highs of 1.46-ish to current levels at 1.14. Not all "punished" stocks present good opportunities and we need to do our homework to determine if they are short term fall or long term fundamental changes. (Think lippo malls as a result of their sponsors and Indonesia government's tax law changes in the past)

Company trip 2019

This year has been overall a good year and there is really little for me to complain about. During the early portion of the year, my old company was facing headwind so there was little work to do. Eventually, when the retrenchment axe came, I was able to secure a new job opportunity that started within 2 weeks after my old employment ceased. With it came along an increase in pay and brand new opportunities to learn. Thank God it all worked out in the end.

My heart is full of thanksgiving as also because as a result of the retrenchment, I made friends with a local SME CEO (I went for interview at his company but accepted another offer) whom I could really click well, and in come sense, what he shares about his challenges and mindset really inspire and intrigue me. I'm also humbled that he does not consider beneath him to make friends with me or share his thoughts. (I'm just a poor young man from a poor background, trying to find his way in the marketplace today)

My current work comes with its own set of challenges as well. However, I think all in all, after interaction with so many colleagues, my boss and supervisor are generally very supportive in terms of work. The culture at work is also a very positive one.

The question of "doing just enough" or "beyond call of duty"

One thing that constantly comes to mind is this: How do I grow in my career and also breakthrough?

From my exchanges with my seniors and the CEO friend, there are generally 2 types of workers (doesn't mean low value workers earn less, in fact some can earn alot but are comfortable):

1. The low value worker:
- Does only what is required of him/her
- Very comfortable and not willing to do more
- Will NOT lose an arm or limb for the company
- Brings lesser value to a company as they may not be very good at their primary tasks or their job doesn't require skilled or niche labour. (anyone can do their work)

2. The high value worker:
- Will do beyond what they are required of
- Willing to partake in challenges with the company
- Will sometimes put company interests ahead of self (workaholics)
- Bring more value to the company as they are good with their primary tasks but also able to offer a wider range of experience.

It is not surprising that with the waves of digitalisation, many PMETs find themselves retrenched. This is because they may earn alot and think they know alot, but fail to pre-empt and adapt to changes in this new economy. I would like to think that we ought to want to be the high value worker rather than the low value worker.

Doing more sometimes is the way to learn new things and discover that we can actually excel beyond our comfort zones. Without displaying that we are capable of much more and being comfortable in our roles, we cannot possibly hope for advancements in our careers.

Yup, I know. Some of us are thinking, work life balance, family and etc.

But this is where I feel we lose out to foreign talent (of our own excuses and choice to become comfortable) because they are far more hungry than us Singaporeans. If we were bosses ourselves, would we hire Singaporeans?

This is the thinking point. Having gained the exposure to overseas colleagues and organisations to see how they operate or work, I just don't see how Singaporeans can hope to win against the competition unless we buck up in our own attitudes and mindset. Are we just another 打工仔, and a low value one at that? The globalised world presents the sort of competitiveness not present in our parents' baby boomers era: someone from the other side of the globe can easily replace your work today either via outsourcing or totally come to Singapore to take over us.

I see how hard my current boss at his 50s work. I see how some people have moved into better roles (with more responsibilities) because they showed that they can do more. I also see people who are very comfortable with what they have, being okay to work 8-5 and go back to their families daily.

Don't get me wrong though, I think this is down to personal opinion and there is nothing right or wrong about being comfortable. Some are perfectly fine with it. But to me there is the danger of being retrenched later on because we don't see the danger until it is too late. (Having been through one is painful enough, even at age 30)

Moreover, if we think we should be paid more, are we delivering more value than what we are being paid for?

Summary thoughts

I will want to work harder now that I am still single not married with family commitments. (Edit: someone reminded me I'm attached, so I should not put myself as single). 😂

As my young (early 40s) global division manager said, always be open and try things, even when we think we may not like them or think we couldn't do them - because we can simply be wrong about it and could end up liking it. He himself was asked to do something he didn't like but he excelled in it and the interest grew over time.

Keep an open and learning mind. Yes, that's what I would do. Be proactive. Do beyond what we are told to. Be hungry. Do what people tell you that you cannot do.

p.s. I also watched a documentary on LV on my flight back which is very interesting as well. Which I will blog in another post on why I think we should try to move towards business side as an employee (below is a breakdown of LV's cost and margin)



 

Until Next Time,

K.C.
If you like this post, you might like our facebook page as well. I'm also on Investing Note.

7. Why I refuse to spend >15-30 minutes budgeting each month

Disclaimer: The views expressed, opinion and information in this article are strictly for informational purposes to encourage educational discussions only. It is important to conduct your own analysis before making any investment decisions based on your own personal circumstances. You should take reasonable measures such as seeking independent financial advice from professionals and/or independently research and verify the information that you find on "30 Year Old Investor" before undertaking any important investment decisions. No content on this site constitutes - or should be understood as constituting - a recommendation to enter any securities transactions or to engage in any of the investment strategies presented in our site content. We do not provide personalised recommendations or views as to whether a particular stock or investment approach is suitable to the financial needs of a specific individual. No representation or warranty expressed or implied is made as to, and no reliance shall be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained on this website. "30 Year Old Investor" shall not be liable whatsoever for loss or damages of any kind arising from the result of any use, reliance or distribution of the articles or its contents from information contained on this website. 
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You don't need to pay anyone/company to have a plan of your own and work towards achieving Financial Independence. Only we alone have no conflict of interest with our own money. "30 Year Old Investor" is a personal blog about a Singaporean's savings and investing journey.


Being the average Singaporean, K.C. is also interested in good food, a little bit of politics and a good slice of humour.

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Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The views expressed, opinion and information in this article are strictly for informational purposes to encourage educational discussions only. It is important to conduct your own analysis before making any investment decisions based on your own personal circumstances. You should take reasonable measures such as seeking independent financial advice from professionals and/or independently research and verify the information that you find on "30 Year Old Investor" before undertaking any important investment decisions.

No content on this site constitutes - or should be understood as constituting - a recommendation to enter any securities transactions or to engage in any of the investment strategies presented in our site content. We do not provide personalised recommendations or views as to whether a particular stock or investment approach is suitable to the financial needs of a specific individual. No representation or warranty expressed or implied is made as to, and no reliance shall be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained on this website.

"30 Year Old Investor" shall not be liable whatsoever for loss or damages of any kind arising from the result of any use, reliance or distribution of the articles or its contents from information contained on this website.

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