Thursday, 20 December 2018

2018 Year End Review

  Posted at  December 20, 2018 2 comments

End of 2018 is near. I set out to achieve the following goals as listed previously in a blog post: 

My 2018 Goal and objectives:
https://30yearoldinvestor.blogspot.com/2018/02/my-reits-plan-for-year-and-my-first.html

Goals:
1. Save between lower target of $12,000 and higher target of $15,000 and buy REITS.
Comment: I achieved my savings target of $15,000. In fact, I saved a total of $18,222.79.

2. Buy one REIT/Dividend Stock every 2 months to lower the cost (DBS cash upfront)
Comment: I currently hold 2 REITs, 1 stock and Singapore Savings Bonds. I refrained from making too many transactions so as to minimise cost. And also decided to hold more cash for better opportunities/entries, or to buy a REIT with more lots to minimise costing.

Statistics for the year and reflections:

Current holdings: 

Stock nameCodeEntry priceSharesPrice% Allocation
1FCOTND8U1.467410001467.378.85
2FLTBUOU1.071225002677.8816.15
3SingtelZ743.318210003318.1620.01
4SSBjust for reference1.00002000200212.07
5
6
7Cash7119.5642.93
Total Amount16584.97
*figures do not contain CPF and insurance commitments

Straits Times Index YTD performance: -10.35%
My portfolio performance: -8.99%
Dividends collected YTD: $350.75

Comment: My only profitable counter for this year was Frasers Logistic and Industrial Trust. My main losses came from trying to trade positions in AEM, Creative and APTT. Those did not go well as it is very difficult to do trading while I am at work. Work demands make it almost impossible as I am not able to play with the BBs in action. I was trying to make quick trades but halfway had to attend to work. Things got ugly and I got stuck having to make cut-losses to ensure that I stay on course for my savings plans. 

With the market getting more volatile and more scares of a impending bear market, perhaps the attractiveness of the Singapore Savings Bonds as a safe-haven for cash makes it very useful.



Projection: 

I have worked out a rough estimation based on calculations like a "benefit illustration"

To attain my Goal would depend on 3 income drivers:
1. Capital Gain from Portfolio
2. Increase in income that I am able to save (depends on advancing career)
3. Growth in dividend income collected.

I should do better at the savings portion over time so this is likely a very pessimistic bare minimum non-negotiable I have to try to hit.

*Bright green show actual figures.

End of Year
Age
PortfolioCurrent capitalEstimated
Projected 2%/yrinjection Rate/yrDividend 3%
201831$16,584.97$12,000.00$497.55
201932$29,414.22$12,000.00$882.43
202033$42,884.93$12,000.00$1,286.55
202134$57,029.18$12,000.00$1,710.88
202235$71,880.63$12,000.00$2,156.42
202336$87,474.67$12,000.00$2,624.24
202437$103,848.40$12,000.00$3,115.45
202538$121,040.82$12,000.00$3,631.22
202639$139,092.86$12,000.00$4,172.79
202740$158,047.50$12,000.00$4,741.43
202841$177,949.88$12,000.00$5,338.50
202942$198,847.37$12,000.00$5,965.42
203043$220,789.74$12,000.00$6,623.69
203144$243,829.23$12,000.00$7,314.88
203245$268,020.69$12,000.00$8,040.62
203346$293,421.72$12,000.00$8,802.65
203447$320,092.81$12,000.00$9,602.78
203548$348,097.45$12,000.00$10,442.92
203649$377,502.32$12,000.00$11,325.07
203750$408,377.44$12,000.00$12,251.32
203851$440,796.31$12,000.00$13,223.89
203952$474,836.13$12,000.00$14,245.08
204053$510,577.93$12,000.00$15,317.34
204154$548,106.83$12,000.00$16,443.20
204255$587,512.17$12,000.00$17,625.37
204356$628,887.78$12,000.00$18,866.63
204457$672,332.17$12,000.00$20,169.97
204558$717,948.78$12,000.00$21,538.46
204659$765,846.22$12,000.00$22,975.39
204760$816,138.53$12,000.00$24,484.16
Total$816,138.53$360,000.00$295,416.29

Based on projections:
- Assuming I manage to save only $1,000 per month,
- With no salary growth whatsoever
- Portfolio has to gain overall 6% per year
- Dividends reinvested
- Retiring for $2k/month (expected to reach by age 60)

Comment: I have decided to moderate the growth % to 5% as I'm not so confident that I am able to consistently grow it at 5%. I would still need more time to study how to be more profitable as compared to now. This year was a productive year at work and I received cash awards from my work. I have not planned them into my projections as they are likely to be non-repeatable.

Wishing you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year ahead! As the bull and bear wrestle over the next few months hope we hang on tight.

Until Next Time,
K.C.



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